| The most significant factors affecting housing during the coming years will be whether aging baby boomers decide to grow old where they are and where young immigrants decide to settle, according to a new study released yesterday by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
William H. Frey of the Brookings Institution conducted the study for the association. Key findings from the study include:
States with the fastest senior growth are not necessarily the ones that now have the highest percentage of seniors. Instead, they will be states where there is currently a younger population that will choose to grow old in place. Well-off young senior populations will emerge in areas like Las Vegas, Denver, Dallas, and Atlanta.
Suburbs in cities like Philadelphia and Chicago will age the fastest because younger residents are abandoning them.
Household mobility that has been a major driver of home sales will fall off as baby boomers choose to age in place.
“New Minority States” where Asians and Hispanics currently account for about one-third of the population are New York, New Jersey, Florida, Illinois, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and California.
“Faster Growing States” contain many suburban communities and attract migration from the rest of the country as well recent immigrants. This group of states will have the highest rate of growth for the 55 and older population. These states are New Hampshire, Maryland, Virginia, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington.
“White-Black Slower Growing States” and “Mostly White Slower Growing States” will have the lowest rate of overall population growth, but will gray rapidly through aging in place, and will have the highest shares of seniors. They are Ohio, Michigan, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Washington D.C., Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, and Montana. |
